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INTELLIGENCE ISSN 1245-2122
N. 427, 22 September 2003
Every Two to Three Weeks
Next Issue on 6 October 2003
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TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 427, 22 September 2003
USA - INTELLIGENCE BECOMES POLITICS & VICE VERSA p.1
TECHNOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES
TIMELINE FROM 8 SEPTEMBER TO 19 SEPTEMBER p.2
PRIVACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS SURVEY 2003 p.3
NATO'S EARLY UNRELIABLE NUCLEAR WEAPONRY p.4
DNA - Proposing the First National Data Base. p.5
WHEN PEACEFUL DEMONSTRATIONS ARE "TERRORISM" p.6
USA - PAUL EVANS p.7
USA - DAVID BOLKA p.8
COMING EVENTS THROUGH 1 NOVEMBER 2003 p.9
INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD
USA - FBI KEEPS DHS IN THE DARK p.10
- CIA News. p.11
- Intelligence News at the DOD. p.12
GREAT BRITAIN - ISC REPORT ON IRAQ DOSSIER INTELLIGENCE p.13
- AL-QAIDA'S UK PRESENCE p.14
NORTHERN IRELAND - PEACE MONITORS NAMED p.15
- THE MYSTERIOUS DEATH OF BRIAN NELSON p.16
IRELAND - GAGGING LAW CONDEMNED p.17
NETHERLANDS - DEATH THREAT TO LEADING PROSECUTOR p.18
RUSSIA/GREAT BRITAIN - FIGHTING IN LONDON & CHECHNYA p.19
COLOMBIA - UNETHICAL AID FROM THE UK p.20
IRAQ - CORDESMAN'S CLEAR VISION OF QUAGMIRE p.21
- IRISH LEGAL EXPERTISE REQUIRED p.22
MIDDLE EAST - ISRAEL, SYRIA, SAUDI ARABIA & IRAN p.23
AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN/INDIA - MORE TALIBAN & AL QAIDA p.24
PHILIPPINES - Intelligence News. p.25
AUSTRALIA - Another Government Casuality of Iraqi WMD. p.26
Intelligence, N. 427, 22 September 2003, p. 1
INTELLIGENCE BECOMES POLITICS & VICE VERSA
Something has definitely changed on the US political scene when
the conservative and pro-Republican "Wall Street Journal", on
10 September, states that when President George Bush and
Secretary of State Colin Powell were warning that Iraq could
strike the US with biological and chemical weapons carried by
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), these top policymakers would
have known that the US Air Force disagreed with this
Former US Marine Corps intelligence officer and CIA case
officer, Robert Steele, founder of Open Source Solutions (OSS),
has been even more critical of the Bush White House and its
manipulation of intelligence to obtain backing for the invasion
of Iraq. Over the summer, Steele's oss.net has produced
extensive material on the question. On 12 July, Steele,
commenting on Gore Vidal's "Dreaming War - Blood for Oil and
the Cheney-Bush Junta", stated that: "In this book by Gore
Vidal, we see a left-of-center but never-the-less very valuable
perspective on the price that a Republic pays when it accepts
lies at the highest levels of governance. ... Interestingly,
this book emphasizes something I had not considered that bears
emphasis: although there were numerous intelligence failures in
detail, Vidal suggests that the Director of Central
Intelligence is correct when he claims that 9-11 was not (at
root) an intelligence failure -- but then leaves unsaid what
Vidal says explicitly: it was a policy failure in that Bush-
Cheney decided not to alarm the people and not to share the
warning information, in part to avoid turbulence and in part
because such an attack would be welcome -- as Pearl Harbor was
welcome -- as a means to remilitarize foreign policy.
Intelligence, N. 427, 22 September 2003, p. 10
FBI KEEPS DHS IN THE DARK
According to a 8 September "Washington Post" report, the FBI
has hired Glenn Cross of Science Applications International
Corp. (SAIC) as a full-time counter-terrorism analyst.
Apparently, the FBI doesn't see any "conflict of interest" in
this nomination even though Cross was a colleague of Steven J.
Hatfill, the "person of interest" in the investigation of the
anthrax mail attacks of late 2001. Although the FBI does not
believe that this would cause problems if Hatfill were brought
to trial, Hatfill's attorneys believe that it would affect the
purity of Cross as a witness. Certain specialist see a conflict
of interest and perhaps an explanation of why the Bureau can't
find a suspect for the anthrax attacks.
With the release of the Congressional investigation of why the
FBI -- and the CIA -- failed to "connect the dots" to avoid the
11 September 2001 attacks, one would have thought that the
Department of Homeland Security (DHS), specifically created to
improve the circulation of intelligence on terrorism, would be
taking over this failed FBI task. But that's reasoning without
taking into consideration the enormous leverage the FBI has
with conservative Republicans in Washington. The result is that
DHS "intelligence sharing" will be subservient to FBI
willingness which prove catastrophic on 11 September 2001. The
Terrorist Screening Center (TSC) will be under FBI control and,
according to papers, merge a patchwork of a dozen existing
lists currently maintained by nine different federal agencies.
The CIA will officially provide information on individuals with
ties to international terror organizations, such as Al-Qaida
and Hezbollah, which it did not do correctly before 11
September 2001. The FBI will officially provide the center with
its data on individuals sought for domestic terror activities,
but this is going to include such FBI "classics" as bombing
abortion clinics or torching sports-utility vehicles, which
took precedence over Islamic terrorism for the FBI before the
11 September attacks.
Intelligence, N. 427, 22 September 2003, p. 13
ISC REPORT ON IRAQ DOSSIER INTELLIGENCE
Last February, a month before the "coalition of the willing"
invaded Iraq to secure regime change and remove the alleged
threat from Saddam Hussein's WMDs, the British Joint
Intelligence Committee (JIC), under the chairmanship of ex-MI6
Moscow CoS, John Scarlett, warned the Prime Minister, Tony
Blair, that "Al-Qaida and associated groups continued to
represent by far the greatest threat to Western interests, and
that threat would be heightened by military action against
Iraq. Any collapse of the Iraqi regime would increase the risk
of chemical and biological warfare technology or agents finding
their way into the hands of terrorists, including Al-Qaida."
Mr. Blair considered the warning -- according to a report by
the parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC),
published on 11 September -- but finally decided that war was
the only option, because the fear of "the very thing you are
trying to avoid" left open the possibility that in time "this
developed into a nexus between terrorism and WMD in any event."
Intelligence, N. 427, 22 September 2003, p. 21
CORDESMAN'S CLEAR VISION OF QUAGMIRE
One of the best analyses of what's happening in Iraq was
recently published by Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman on 22 August in
the title: "What is Next in Iraq? Military Developments,
Military Requirements and Armed Nation Building". According to
Cordesman, "In balance, the US forces and analysts most
involved (a) admit on background that they have no real numbers
and the situation is constantly evolving, (b) see some kind of
loose regional coordination but cannot identify its scale and
structure with any detail, (c) see the Iraqi threat as still
more pro-Saddam and Ba'athist than Islamic but note there is no
clear separation between the groups, (d) see a loose structure
of cooperation between diverse groups that do not share a
common agenda other than anger or hatred of the United States
and secular change, (e) see growing numbers of young Sunni
Iraqis entering the opposition as part of a postwar reaction to
the US failures in nation building, (f) do see outside
volunteers and speculate that 50-200 Al Ansar have returned,
and (g) see the numbers of serious hostile cadres involved as a
still very small but admit no meaningful numbers are possible."
Intelligence, N. 427, 22 September 2003, p. 9
COMING EVENTS THROUGH 1 NOVEMBER 2003
In the interest of efficiency, "Intelligence" lists all coming
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members of our free distribution list.
20-26 September, Atlanta, Georgia, Homeland Security Summit,
tel 1 404 261-3690.
21-25 September, Dayton, Ohio, Association of Old Crows (AOC),
40th annual meeting, http://www.crows.org.
24-26 September, Amsterdam, Crime Prevention & Security - Pro-
1 October, proposals are due for the 13-15 May 2004
International Conference on Current Research Information
Systems (CRIS) to be held in Antwerp, Belgium,
2-3 October, Washington, Shephard, Night Vision USA,
100406 Localizing the Internet: Ethical Issues in Intercultural
Perspective. International Center for Information Ethics.
October 4-6, 2004. Karlsruhe, Germany. For more information:
8 October, Washington, Aviation Week, NetCentric Conference,
8-9 October, Rome, New York, US Air Force Research Laboratory,
Cyber Operations Technology Conference, http://www.ndia.org.
16-17 October, Singapore, APCEM, Combating Terrorism - Military
and Non-Military Strategies, email@example.com.
16-19 October, Toronto, Canada, Association of Internet
19-22 October, Nimes, France, Infonortics, International
Chemical Information meeting, http://www.infonortics.com.
20 October, Ottawa, Canada, Riley, Security Laws and Privacy -
Striking the Balance, http://www.rileyis.com.
20-21 October, London, Shephard, Vision 2003,
20-23 October, Long Beach, California, American Society for
Information Science meeting, http://www.asis.org/Conferences.
20-23 October, Dayton, Ohio, AFCEA, Info Tech 2003,
21-22 October, Zurich, Switzerland, 8th Symposium on Privacy
and Security - Identity and Anonymity in an Increasingly
Interconnected World, http://www.privacy-security.ch.
21-22 London, Defence IQ, Interoperability 2003,
27-30 October, King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, US Defense
Department, Maintenances Symposium, http://www.sae.org.
27-31 October, Carthage, Tunisia, Internet Corporation for
Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) Meeting,
28-30 October, Radisson, Florida, American Helicopter Society &
Army Aviation and Missile Command, Specialists Meeting on
Rotocraft Propulsion, fax 1 757 878 1323.
28-30 October, Adelaide, Australia, Land Warfare Conference.
28-29 October, Alexandria, Virginia, DSCA Worldwide Conference.
29 October, Maritime Security Expo USA.
29-31 October, Chicago, IAPP Privacy and Data Security Academy
and Expo, http://www.privacyassociation.org.
30 October-1 November, Anaheim, California, Airlift Tanker
Association meeting, participants are advised to not mention
the name "Airbus" during the proceedings.
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