INTELLIGENCE ISSN 1245-2122
N. 485, 2 October 2006
Every Two to Three Weeks
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TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 485, 2 October 2006
ISRAEL - MILITARY & "TECH FIX" FAILURES IN GAZA & LEBANON p.1
TECHNOLOGY & TECHINQUES
TIMELINE FROM 15 SEPTEMBER TO 29 SEPTEMBER p.2
ISRAELIS EXPORTING BORDER SECURITY EXPERTISE p.3
TINKERING DIEBOLD, TERRORISTS & PRIVACY p.4
USA - DAVID T. LYKKEN p.5
CANADA - MAHER ARAR p.6
GREAT BRITAIN - NIGEL SHEINWALD p.7
COMING EVENTS THROUGH 15 DECEMBER 2006 p.8
INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD
USA - CONGRESS-APPROVED TORTURE & SECRET DETENTION p.9
- NIE ON GLOBAL TERRORISM BECOMES POLITICAL p.10
- PROBLEMS FOR "RUMMY", DOD BUDGET & OTHER NEWS p.11
- CIA OUTSOURCING & OTHER NEWS p.12
- FBI "INTELLIGENCE SHARING" & OTHER NEWS p.13
GREAT BRITAIN - AIRCRAFT BOMB PLOT DEFLATES p.14
- PRIORITY ARMS SALES TARGETS p.15
ITALY - CIA KIDNAPPING HITS THE SISMI p.16
WESTERN EUROPE - BRITAIN, FRANCE, GERMANY & BELGIUM p.17
RUSSIA - US PRE-ELECTION SUBVERSION WARNING p.18
EASTERN EUROPE - HUNGARY & CAUCASUS p.19
LATIN AMERICA - "FALSE FLAG" MOSSAD OPERATION FAILURES p.20
- Mexico, Venezuela & Iran. p.21
ISRAEL - Interpol Changes Tel Aviv's Status. p.22
IRAQ - UK "GUNS FOR COKE" TRADE & TROOP MORALE p.23
- BUSH & BLAIR'S "MUTUAL CONVENIENCE" p.24
- FROM CIVIL WAR TO SPLIT UP OF THE COUNTRY p.25
IRAN - US MILITARY OPERATIONS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN p.26
MIDDLE EAST - Al-Qaida, the Pope & Turkey. p.27
AFGHANISTAN - "LOSING AFGHANISTAN" & MORE MORALE PROBLEMS p.28
ASIA - PAKISTAN, TALIBAN & THAILAND COUP p.29
Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 1
MILITARY & "TECH FIX" FAILURES IN GAZA & LEBANON
The major media has traditionally avoided covering the failures
of Israeli military and intelligence (see Latin America below),
but this summer's invasions of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon seem
to have changed that worldwide attitude. Now one can read that
"Despite directly targeting Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasarallah
and the organization's Al-Manar TV network with bombs and
electronic warfare, Israel was unable to prevent the radical
Shiite cleric from reaching his audience regularly" (0828
Defense News, Israel May Disrupt Commercial Broadcasts, Barbara
Opall-Rome). The same article also uses the phrase "an
unsuccessful five-week campaign to roust the Islamist group
from southern Lebanon" to describe the Israeli invasion of
Even Israel's highly-promoted electronic expertise (see
Technology & Techniques below) took a serious hit. Hezbollah
was reportedly able to conduct effective electronic
intelligence gathering against the Israeli military's single
channel ground-air system (SINCGARS) tactical radios. The
intelligence apparently allowed Hezbollah to respond
unexpectedly quickly to Israeli moves. Also, Israeli forces
found sophisticated eavesdropping and jamming equipment in some
Hezbollah positions they overran (0918 Newsday, Mohamad Bazzi
and Aita Shaab).
One can also read that Israel's "technology advance has not
enabled the Israelis to avoid costly targeting missteps, or to
suppress the Hezbollah rocket threat or pinpoint the
adversary's weapons supplier" (0807 Aviation Week, Harsh
Trajectories - Israel continues to attack Hezbollah's rocket
arsenal, but larger and more destructive threats loom, Robert
Wall, David A. Fulghum and Douglas Barrie).
There are even admissions that the Israeli military "tech fix"
strategy has reached its limits: "Despite intensive efforts
over the past five years to locate and destroy terrorist
tunnels, Israel's failure to thwart a recent subsurface cross-
border attack has fueled ambivalence here over the prospects of
ever achieving an effective defense against burrowing threats.
... The surprise [25 June Hamas] attack from the rear cost the
lives of two IDF soldiers; another was taken captive and
inestimable damage was done to Israeli deterrence and morale"
(0710 Defense News, Israel Confronts Threat of Gaza Tunnels,
Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 2
TIMELINE FROM 15 SEPTEMBER TO 29 SEPTEMBER
In our preceding issue, we mentioned that "the Israeli invasion
of Lebanon -- and of the Gaza Strip -- have all but disappeared
from the headlines which have returned to the 'major ongoing
developments' and continue to include: 'Bush White House
policies concerning torture, kidnapping and secret detention
... [which have] resulted in some changes'; 'Pentagon problems
with cases to murder and rape in Iraq ... [which] have
continued to gain prominence in the US, resulting in several
legal cases'; and 'open resistance by members of the military
to Bush White House's war in Iraq ... [which] have reached a
level where it can no longer be ignored by the major press'."
The first and the third topics continue to be major news
We also mentioned the "astonishing collection of false reports
-- or should one say 'lies' -- put out by the Bush White House
and allies ... [including] ABC's ideological fiction titled
'The Path to 9/11', the Senate Intelligence Committee report on
the Bush White House's distortion of intelligence to push for
an invasion of Iraq, the House Intelligence Committee's
misleading and incorrect report on Iran's nuclear program, the
hiring by the 'Washington Post' of pro-Bush, pro-war right-wing
columnist Michael Gerson who has 'gotten it wrong' several
times." There has been a serious decline in "false reports" as
the Bush White House got down to "real business": countering
the new classified US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
which states that the Iraq war has encouraged and increased
terrorism, and passing the bills authorizing torture and
indefinite secret imprisonment of any person the US president
wants. Such bills were recently passed by the GOP-dominated
House of Representatives and Senate.
But neither of these two topics is the subject of our Front
Page article which brings together a lot of the specialized
information now being made available on the Israeli invasion of
Lebanon and the difficulties of the Israeli armed forces in
fighting the Hezbollah. And, as usual, the Israeli press has
furnished some of the most critical information, such as Amir
Oren's 18 September report in "Ha'aretz" confirming that an
inquiry by Brig. Gen. Avi Ashkenazi found that Israeli military
intelligence (Agaf ha-Modi'in or Aman) had solid intelligence
on the planned capture of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah some
time before Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser were taken prisoner
on 12 June.
Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 8
COMING EVENTS THROUGH 15 DECEMBER 2006
2-5 October, Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2006 Homeland Defense
2-5 October, Destin, Florida, Obscurants 3006 Conference,
3-5 October, Fort Huachuca, Arizona, AFCEA C4IST 2006.
3-7 October, Athens, Greece, Hellenic Ministry of Defence,
Defendory International, defendoryinternational.gr.
4-5 October, Virginia Beach, Virginia, 11th Joint Warfare
5 October, Chicago, Pritzker Military Library, Thomas Ricks
discusses his new book, "Fiasco - The American Military
Adventure in Iraq". A complimentary wine and cheese reception
will be held at 17h00 and the program will begin at 18h00.
Email firstname.lastname@example.org or Web
4-6 October, Amsterdam, The Moral Dimension of Asymmetrical
4-7 October, New Rochelle, New York, International Information
Management Association 17th Annual Conference, Triple
Convergence - Information, Innovation, Technology, iima.org/.
9-11 October, Washington, Association of US Army, AUSA Annual
17-18 October, Wellington, New Zealand, Ninth Annual Defense
Industry Association Seminar, email@example.com.
17-19 October, Laurel, Maryland, Precision Strike Technology
17-19 October, Kleve, Germany, Joint Air Power Competence
Center Conference 2006, The Exploitation of Unmanned Aerospace
18-20 October, Toronto, International Association of Privacy
Professionals, IAPP Privacy Academy 2006,
18-22 October, Saoul, South Korea, Defense Asia 2006,
20-21 October, Lubbock, Texas, Vietnam Center, Texas Tech
University and the Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI)
will co-host a conference on Intelligence in the Vietnam War,
firstname.lastname@example.org or vietnam.ttu.edu/vietnamcenter/events/.
20 October-1 November, Oshawa, Ontario, University of Ontario
Institute of Technology, International Conference on Privacy,
Security, and Trust (PST 2006), businessandit.uoit.ca/pst2006/.
22-25 October, Nimes, France, Infonortics, International
Conference for Science & Business Information, infonortics.com.
23-26 October, Panama City Beach, Florida, NDIA 11th Annual
Expeditionary Warfare Conference, ndia.org.
23-27 October, Paris Le Bourget, Euronaval 2006.
24 October, Arlington, Virginia, First Annual FAR/DFARS Review.
24-27 October, Willamsburg, Virginia, AHA & AAAA, Helicopter
Military Operations (HELIMOT) Specialists' Meeting XII.
28 October, in Virginia, US Commission on Military History
annual meeting with lecture speaker Tom Ricks, author of
"Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq",
30 October-1 November, Panama City Beach, Florida, NDIA's 44th
Annual Targets, UAVs & Range Operations meeting, ndia.org.
30 October-2 November, Athens, Greece, Internet Governance
Forum (IGF), igfgreece2006.gr/.
31 October-5 November, Zhuhai, China, Airshow China 2006,
1 November, deadline for papers for 22-23 August 2007 First
Biennial Conference of Air Power Studies, Air Power, Insurgency
and the "War on Terror", at Kings College, London, and at the
Royal Air Force College, RAFC Cranwell, Lincolnshire, jhayward-
1-2 November, Crystal City, Virginia, Sixth Annual C4ISR
Integration Conference, email@example.com.
2-3 November, London, 28th International Data Protection and
Privacy Commissioners' Conference,
5-8 November, Washington, Association of Old Cross, AOC 2006.
5-9 November, Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, National
Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, First Combined NSG Systems
11-12 November, Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Aviation Nation
- America's Airshow, firstname.lastname@example.org.
14-16 November, Monterey, California, US Naval Postgraduate
School, AIAA Missile Sciences Conference,
27-30 November, Orlando, Florida, 25th Army Science Conference,
11-15 December, Miami Beach, Florida, 22nd Annual Computer
Security Applications Conference (ACSAC 2006),
Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 9
CONGRESS-APPROVED TORTURE & SECRET DETENTION
On 6 September, President George W. Bush admitted that the
United States detains suspected terrorists in secret CIA-run
prisons in foreign countries. He also announced that 14 persons
held in these secret jails had been transferred to Guantanamo.
Bush claimed that no other individuals were currently being
held at CIA "black sites" but refused to disclose the location
of said jails.
Bush didn't act willingly, according to the "Financial Times"
(0920, CIA "Refused to Operate" Secret Jails, Guy Dinmore):
"The Bush administration had to empty its secret prisons and
transfer terror suspects to the military-run detention centre
at Guantanamo this month in part because CIA interrogators had
refused to carry out further interrogations and run the secret
facilities, according to former CIA officials and people close
to the programme. The former officials said the CIA
interrogators' refusal was a factor in forcing the Bush
administration to act earlier than it might have wished." In
short, the CIA, in "covering its ass", obliged Bush to act.
On 14 September, Bush made an unaccustomed trip to the Hill to
seek legislative permission for the CIA to make people
disappear into secret prisons and have information extracted
from them by means he dare not describe publicly but including
"water-boarding", a well-known traditional method of torture.
Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 14
AIRCRAFT BOMB PLOT DEFLATES
The London aircraft bomb plot, which triggered overkill
security measures at British airports in the second week of
August, has been denounced by a former senior British
intelligence officer, Nigel Wylde, as comprising a "pattern of
lies and deceit". 22 British Moslems have been charged with a
variety of alleged offenses under Britain's sprawling counter-
terrorism legislation. The supposed plan involved the mixing of
household chemicals to create an explosive to be detonated with
a small, commercially available electronic device.
Intelligence, N. 485, 2 October 2006, p. 20
"FALSE FLAG" MOSSAD OPERATION FAILURES
On at least two occasion since the 11 September 2001 attacks in
New York and Washington, the Israel foreign intelligence
service, the Mossad, has tried and failed to carry out "false
flag" terrorist operations in Central and South America.
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