INTELLIGENCE ISSN 1245-2122
N. 487, 13 November 2006
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TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 487, 13 November 2006
USA - GOP "FAMILY VALUES" GANG IN THE CESSPOOL p.1
TECHNOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES
TIMELINE FROM 20 OCTOBER TO 10 NOVEMBER p.2
COUNTER-INSURGENCY AS SYSTEMATIC "BIG PICTURE" FAILURE p.3
AUSSIE-NSA HIGH-TECH SEARCH FOR BALI BOMBERS p.4
ALMOST SUCCESSFUL CONFLICT RESOLUTION TECHNIQUES FOR IRAQ p.5
USA - ROBERT M. GATES p.6
GREAT BRITAIN - DAVID REDDAWAY p.7
NORTHERN IRELAND - PETER KEELEY p.8
COMING EVENTS THROUGH 15 JANUARY 2007 p.9
INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD
USA - ANTI-BUSH STAMPEDE & ITS FALLOUT p.10
- NOT YOUR USUAL PROBLEMS WITH TORTURE p.11
- RUMMY'S SHOCK TROOPS FIGHT THE MEDIA p.12
- INTERNAL SECURITY & FBI NEWS p.13
- CIA HUMINT Problems & Intellipedia. p.14
- Libby's "Plamegate" Case Starts Badly. p.15
GREAT BRITAIN - MI6 USED CIVILIAN FLIGHT TO KUWAIT p.16
- MI6 ORIGINALLY OPPOSED IRAQ INVASION p.17
- CORRUPTION FUELED AL YAMAMAH ARMS DEAL p.18
NORTHERN IRELAND - PROVOS WON IN "BANDIT COUNTRY" p.19
GERMANY - CIA RENDITIONS KNOWN FOR YEARS p.20
ITALY - CIA Rendition Hits Spy Boss Pollari. p.21
WESTERN EUROPE - BRITAIN, HOLLAND & THE WEST p.22
RUSSIA - POLITKOVSKAYA'S LEGACY p.23
- FSB Gets A Lithuanian Spy. p.24
EASTERN EUROPE - Russia, Iran, GRU & the US. p.25
LATIN AMERICA - Mexico, Argentina & Iran. p.26
SUDAN - Oil Adds To Trouble. p.27
ISRAEL - ALL THE WAY WITH THE CIA p.28
ISRAEL/PALESTINE - MORE & MORE PALESTINIAN CIVILIANS DIE p.29
IRAQ - "MILITARY LIGHT" WAS NOT AN OPTION p.30
- INCREASED DEATH TOLL AS WAR CONTINUES p.31
IRAN - No Longer On The Front Burner. p.32
MIDDLE EAST - Syria, US & Nuclear Programs. p.33
PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN - NATO VERSUS TALIBAN p.34
ASIA - Australia, South Korea & Sri Lanka. p.35
Intelligence, N. 487, 13 November 2006, p. 1
GOP "FAMILY VALUES" GANG IN THE CESSPOOL
In any regime where the number two person -- in this case, US
Vice President Richard Cheney -- can say "Get Fucked" in public
to a leader of the opposition -- in this case, a senior
Democrat Senator -- and get away with it, one cannot expect
crucial elections to respect traditional Western democratic
political etiquette. And the 7 November 2006 mid-term
Congressional elections in the US lived up to expectations.
Here, the prize should probably go to Daggett County in Utah
where there are 943 residents and 947 registered voters and the
father of a Republican deputy running for sheriff has 14 adults
registered at his household. They don't do any better in
Corsica or Sicily.
But election "misdeeds" are only part of the heritage left
behind in Washington by the "Values" gang of the Republican
Party and their allies. "Classic" corruption, dishonesty, lying
and hypocrisy seem to have reached an all-time high with
perhaps the prize going to Rev. Ted Haggard, president of the
30-million-member National Association of Evangelicals --
against abortion, sex-sex marriages, gays, etc. -- for a
reported three-year affair with a male prostitute.
The shocking impunity with which such "misdeeds" have been
carried out probably began six years ago when the Republican-
dominated Supreme Court stopped a ballot recount and simply
decided that the US president should be George W. Bush. The
misdeeds and damage done to the United States by this one-party
system will take some time to undo and certain specialists,
including Americans, feel that the task is so great that new
Democrat Congress may not be able to succeed before "normal"
bipartisan politics return to Washington and stymie the
tremendous effort needed. In this case, talk of the "decline"
of the US is not just "hot air".
Intelligence, N. 487, 13 November 2006, p. 2
TIMELINE FROM 20 OCTOBER TO 10 NOVEMBER
During the past three weeks, the most prominent headlines were
the US Congressional electoral victory of the Democrat Party
and the associated resignation of Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary
of Defense. In our preceding issue, we mentioned that the most
prominent headlines then concerned the North Korean nuclear
bomb test, "but, in terms of news that may seriously change the
current situation, the prize should probably go to two US
'domestic' developments: the Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) sex scandal
and the direct implication of the Republican political
leadership; and the publication of Robert Woodward's book,
'State of Denial', and its political implications that the Bush
White House was clearly warned of an impending Qaida attack and
did nothing" (the subject of that issue's "Front Page"
Specialists have noted that the North Korean nuclear weapon
problem quickly disappeared from the front pages, replaced by
the "domestic" developments that we had mentioned. Indeed, the
past three weeks leading up to the 7 November vote were filled
with news of Republican Party corruption, scandals and
political misdeeds which seem to perfectly fit the definition
of the French term, "fin de regime", and are the subject of
this issue's "Front Page" article. There doesn't seem to be any
particular "source" for this vast collection of Republican
scandals, other than a general feeling of "fin de regime" which
has encouraged many of the persons associated with these
misdeeds to "throw in the rag" and "go public".
Nonetheless, this major change in US politics does not solve
the major problems abroad of the Bush regime: the Iraq war, the
Israel-Palestine conflict, the nuclear programs of North Korea
and Iran, and the war in Afghanistan. But these major problems
risk being given second priority to "domestic" problems such as
investigating Bush regime scandals and "undoing" Bush regime
legislation such as the Military Commissions Act authorizing
torture and secret detentions, and the Patriot Act used to
justify warrantless eavesdropping on the American public. The
single most delicate topic to watch in the near future is the
possibility of a Senate investigation of George W. Bush for war
crimes. Many specialists seem to think the Democrats will let
Bush "save his hide" if he is willing to "undo" the legislation
mentioned above. Otherwise, he risks following "Tricky Dick"
Nixon into the history books.
Intelligence, N. 487, 13 November 2006, p. 9
COMING EVENTS THROUGH 15 JANUARY 2007
14-16 November, Monterey, California, US Naval Postgraduate
School, AIAA Missile Sciences Conference,
15-17 November, San Antonio, Texas, Airborne Law Enforcement
Association, Central Region Safety Seminar, alea.org.
27-30 November, Nashville, Tennessee, Defense Manufacturing
Conference, dmc.utcdayton.com or firstname.lastname@example.org.
27-30 November, Orlando, Florida, 25th Army Science Conference,
4-7 December, Orlando, Florida, I/ITSEC 2006.
5-6 December, London, First Annual Counter-Terror World Summit
- Building a Secure World, with sessions on aviation and
airport security, maritime and supply chain security, event and
infrastructure security, and presentations by Frank Gardner
(BBC), Sir Richard Mottram (Permanent Secretary, Cabinet Office
on UK Counter Terror Policy), Lord Carlile of Berriew (QC),
Paul Wilkinson (University of St. Andrews), Jack Caravelli
(former White House National Security), Assistant Commissioner
Tarique Ghaffur (Metropolitan Police). Contact
counterterrorworld.com/conf or email@example.com.
11-15 December, Miami Beach, Florida, 22nd Annual Computer
Security Applications Conference (ACSAC 2006), acsac.org.
15 December, deadline for proposals for the Workshop on
Surveillance and Inequality, on 16-18 March 2007 at Arizona
State University, in Tempe, Arizona. This workshop will bring
together a multi-disciplinary and international array of
scholars studying the social implications of contemporary
15-16 December, Tutzing (near Munich), Germany, Akamemie fuer
Politische Bildung, Den Western im Visier - Stasi-Spionage in
westlichen Demokratien (Targeting The West - Stasi Spying in
Western Democracies), apb-tutzing.de.
31 December, deadline for proposals for the annual meeting of
the International Congress of the History of Technology
(ICOHTEC) Social History of Military Technology section meeting
on 14-18 August 2007, in Copenhagen, Denmark, firstname.lastname@example.org.
15 January, deadline for contributors to "American Espionage -
A Historical Encyclopedia". The author is seeking contributors
to write entries for a historical encyclopedia of American
espionage and intelligence to be published by ABC-CLIO. Entries
range in length from 300-2000 words. Those contributing more
than 5,000 words will received a copy of the completed work.
Intelligence, N. 487, 13 November 2006, p. 10
ANTI-BUSH STAMPEDE & ITS FALLOUT
With the scandals, corruption and lies described above in our
"Front Page" article (besides the problems of the Iraq war),
little wonder that there was a "stampede" away from George W.
Bush and his disastrous regime as the 7 November mid-term
elections approached. Indeed, the US dropped nine places in one
year in the international press freedom index and even the 9/11
widows no longer believed in Bush and demanded to see the
Rice/Tenet documents that reportedly "connected the dots"
several months before the 11 September 2001 attacks. But there
was some -- unnoticed -- good news: on 26 October, ExxonMobil
Corporation reported that it earned $10.49 billion in the third
quarter, the second largest quarterly profit ever posted by a
publicly traded American company. The largest on record was
also reported by ExxonMobil -- $10.71 billion in the fourth
quarter of 2005 (1026 NYT, Exxon Reports $10.49 Billion Profit
in Quarter, John Holusha and Heather Timmons).
Perhaps that's why Bush, despite the stampede, named Lee
Raymond, the retired chief of ExxonMobil, to head a key study
to help America chart a cleaner course for US energy needs.
Raymond currently chairs the National Petroleum Council (NPC),
one of the most powerful lobbies in Washington (1102
BushGreenwatch, Bush Names Exxon Chief to Chart America's
Energy Future). And, of course, Donald Rumsfeld is doing a
wonderful job at the Pentagon, even with a lost war in Iraq
(1030 Progress Report, Boehner Praised Rumsfeld as "The Best
Thing That's Happened to the Pentagon in 25 Years"): "Yesterday
on ABC's 'This Week,' host George Stephanopoulos asked House
Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) if he thought Rumsfeld
should go. 'Rumsfeld is the best thing that's happened to the
Pentagon in 25 years,' Boehner replied."
Intelligence, N. 487, 13 November 2006, p. 17
MI6 ORIGINALLY OPPOSED IRAQ INVASION
Twenty-four hours after the 11 September 2001 attacks in New
York and in Washington, a senior MI6 delegation travelled to
CIA headquarters at Langley, Virginia, for a meeting with CIA
director George Tenet, to warn their US colleagues to
"concentrate on Afghanistan" and not be tempted to launch
retaliatory attacks on Iraq which the British government would
have difficulty supporting. The claim is made in a recently-
published book by Tyler Drumheller and Elaine Monaghan, "On The
Brink" (Carroll & Graff, New York, October 2006).
Intelligence, N. 487, 13 November 2006, p. 28
ALL THE WAY WITH THE CIA
In a 30 October statement, the Israel Airport Authority (IAA)
confirmed that at least two CIA planes, used to transport
alleged Islamic jihadists to detention and interrogation
centres in Europe and the Middle East, used facilities at Ben-
Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv between May 2003 and
Details of the "extraordinary rendition" flights, based on
information from a EU parliamentary committee and European
aviation authorities, were disclosed by the British-based civil
liberties publication, "Statewatch", which claims that at least
four flights landed at Tel Aviv over the 12-month period.
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