This is one issue before the last one that will be sent out

free on our distribution list. Beginning on 1 January 2007,

the "summary" version will cost 20 euros per year. The new free

version will include only the table of contents and a few excerpts.

 

 

INTELLIGENCE                                ISSN 1245-2122

N. 488, 4 December 2006

Every Two to Three Weeks

Next issue, 18 December 2006

Publishing since 1980

 

Editor

Olivier Schmidt

(intelligence-adi@wanadoo.fr;

http://perso.wanadoo.fr/intelligence-adi)

 

A one year subscription (19 issues with article index) is

330 euros. Reduced rates for personal subscriptions and

20 euros for the "summary" version. Payment by credit card

possible.

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 488, 4 December 2006

 

FRONT PAGE

 

GREAT BRITAIN - THE SLOW DEATH OF ALEXANDER LITVINENKO p.1

 

TECHNOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES

 

TIMELINE FROM 9 NOVEMBER TO 30 NOVEMBER p.2

THE IRA DECOMMISSIONING PROCESS p.3

RUSSIA - High-Tech At New GRU Headquarters. p.4

US TECH & ISRAELI CLUSTER BOMBS IN LEBANON p.5

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS, JIHADI STUDY & LIQUID BOMB BELTS p.6

 

PEOPLE

 

USA - MICHAEL SCHARF p.7

NORTHERN IRELAND - MICHAEL ANTHONY STONE p.8

 

AGENDA

 

COMING EVENTS THROUGH 2 FEBRUARY 2007 p.9

 

INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD

 

USA - "RUMMY", TORTURE, KIDNAPPING & SECRET DETENTIONS p.10

    - E-VOTING MEETS ITS WATERLOO WITH THE GOP p.11

    - GOP "K STREET BLUES" & CORRUPTION p.12

    - BUSH MEDIA SINKS WITH 7 NOVEMBER ELECTIONS p.13

    - "THE SAME OLD GEORGE" & PARTISAN POLITICS p.14

    - FBI'S $2 MILLION "TERRORIST" EMBARRASSMENT p.15

    - MILITARY DRAFT TO AVOID UNNECESSARY WARS p.16

    - CIA & BOBBY KENNEDY ASSASSINATION p.17

    - POST-7 NOVEMBER "SNOOPGATE" CONFRONTATION p.18

NORTHERN IRELAND - STATE-SPONSORED ASSASSINS p.19

ITALY - "FIN DE REGIME" FOR CIA, BERLUSCONI & SISMI p.20

WESTERN EUROPE - EU REPORT ON CIA SECRET PROGRAM p.21

               - NATO ENTENTE TROUBLE & OTHER NEWS p.22

BULGARIA - ANOTHER "UNEXPLAINED" SUICIDE p.23

EASTERN EUROPE - RUSSIA, SWEDEN & CHECHNYA p.24

LATIN AMERICA - Nicaragua, Argentina & Ecuador. p.25

AFRICA - SOUTH AFRICA, USA, SUDAN & SOMALIA p.26

ISRAEL/PALESTINE - MILITARY ONLY SOLUTION HAS TROUBLE p.27

ISRAEL - STILL SPYING ON THE USA p.28

LEBANON - AFTER ISRAELI ATTACK, HEZBOLLAH WANTS POWER p.29

IRAQ - ALL BAD NEWS, EVEN WITH DADY'S BOYS p.30

IRAN - CLEAR ISRAELI/US THREATS OF ATTACK p.31

MIDDLE EAST - END OF WESTERN DOMINATION? p.32

AFGHANISTAN - TALIBAN ADVANCES, NATO STAGNATES p.33

ASIA - North Korea, India & Australia. p.34

 

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 488, 4 December 2006, p. 2

 

 

TIMELINE FROM 9 NOVEMBER TO 30 NOVEMBER

 

 

In our previous issue three weeks ago, the most prominent

headlines were the US Congressional electoral victory of the

Democrat Party and the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld as

Secretary of Defense. We also noted that "the North Korean

nuclear weapon problem quickly disappeared from the front

pages, replaced by the 'domestic' developments" leading up to

the 7 November vote, particularly news of Republican Party

corruption, scandals and political misdeeds. Those "misdeeds"

continue to occupy the front pages of the US press, but these

"domestic" problems and the Democrat electoral victory are not

going to solve the major problems abroad of the Bush regime:

the Iraq war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, the nuclear

programs of North Korea and Iran, and the war in Afghanistan.

The new Democrat Congress will have to pursue these problems

and, at the same time, investigate Bush regime scandals and

"undo" Bush regime legislation such as the Military Commissions

Act authorizing torture and secret detentions, and the Patriot

Act used to justify warrantless eavesdropping on the American

public.

 

In our previous issue, we mentioned that the "single most

delicate topic to watch in the near future is the possibility

of a Senate investigation of George W. Bush for war crimes.

Many specialists seem to think the Democrats will let Bush

'save his hide' if he is willing to 'undo' the legislation

mentioned above. Otherwise, he risks following 'Tricky Dick'

Nixon into the history books." If indications over the last

three weeks are reliable, Bush does not intend to "save his

hide" by cooperating with the new Democratic Congress, and a

major confrontation is in the making.

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 488, 4 December 2006, p. 9

 

 

COMING EVENTS THROUGH 2 FEBRUARY 2007

 

 

4-7 December, Orlando, Florida, I/ITSEC 2006.

 

5-6 December, London, First Annual Counter-Terror World Summit

- Building a Secure World, with sessions on aviation and

airport security, maritime and supply chain security, event and

infrastructure security, and presentations by Frank Gardner

(BBC), Sir Richard Mottram (Permanent Secretary, Cabinet Office

on UK Counter Terror Policy), Lord Carlile of Berriew (QC),

Paul Wilkinson (University of St. Andrews), Jack Caravelli

(former White House National Security), Assistant Commissioner

Tarique Ghaffur (Metropolitan Police). Contact

counterterrorworld.com/conf or jmayer@ibeltd.com.

 

7 December, deadline for proposals, Facebook, What It Is, How

It Works,Why It Matters to You, International Association of

Privacy Professionals Audio Conference,

privacyassociation.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&i

d=8&Itemid=70.

 

7 December, Paris, The Fight Against Corruption - Between

Regulatory Intentions and Reality in the Field, with Madame

Laurence Parisot, president of the French employers' union

(MEDEF), and Andre Added, president of the Institut Francais de

l'Intelligence Economique, medef.fr/luttercontrelacorruption

hbethouart@medef.fr.

 

11-15 December, Miami Beach, Florida, 22nd Annual Computer

Security Applications Conference (ACSAC 2006), acsac.org.

 

15 December, deadline for proposals for the Workshop on

Surveillance and Inequality, on 16-18 March 2007 at Arizona

State University, in Tempe, Arizona. This workshop will bring

together a multi-disciplinary and international array of

scholars studying the social implications of contemporary

surveillance, workshop@publicsurveillance.com.

 

15-16 December, Tutzing (near Munich), Germany, Akamemie fuer

Politische Bildung, Den Western im Visier - Stasi-Spionage in

westlichen Demokratien (Targeting The West - Stasi Spying in

Western Democracies), apb-tutzing.de.

 

20 December, Paris, Institut National des Hautes Etudes de

Securite & the Centre Francais de Recherche sur le

Renseignement, "Intelligence and Civil Defense", hedfc.org.

 

31 December, deadline for proposals for the annual meeting of

the International Congress of the History of Technology

(ICOHTEC) Social History of Military Technology section meeting

on 14-18 August 2007, in Copenhagen, Denmark, hackerb@si.edu.

 

9-11 January, Crystal City, Virginia, Surface Navy Association

Meeting.

 

15 January, deadline for contributors to "American Espionage -

A Historical Encyclopedia". The author is seeking contributors

to write entries for a historical encyclopedia of American

espionage and intelligence to be published by ABC-CLIO. Entries

range in length from 300-2000 words. Those contributing more

than 5,000 words will received a copy of the completed work.

Contact: guerrisw@jmu.edu.

 

15 January, deadline for contributors to the ABC-CLIO

encyclopedia, "American Espionage: A Historical Encyclopedia",

guerrisw@jmu.edu.

 

15 January, deadline for proposals, 14th International

Symposium on Digital Insecurity and Society Vulnerability, 14-

15 June, Paris, creis.sgdg.org.

 

31 January, deadline for proposals for the special issue on

"Cryptology and Steganography in Malware" for the "Journal in

Computer Virology", efiliol@esat.terre.defense.gouv.fr.

 

31 January-2 February, San Diego, California, WEST 2007.

 

2 February, deadline for proposals for SAFECOMP 2007, the 26th

International Conference on Computer Safety, Reliability and

Security, 18-21 September 2007, Nuremberg, Germany,

saglietti@informatik.uni-erlangen.de.

 

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 488, 4 December 2006, p. 10

 

 

USA

 

"RUMMY", TORTURE, KIDNAPPING & SECRET DETENTIONS

 

 

Since the 7 November election victory of the Democrat Party and

the replacement of Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense, the

latter has been exposed to serious accusations concerning

torture, kidnapping and secret detentions. According to "Der

Spiegel" (1027 Spiegel, "The President Knows More Than He Lets

On", Ron Suskind): "One hundred suspected terrorists from all

over the world are still being held in secret American prisons.

CIA expert Ron Suskind accuses Washington of 'running like a

headless chicken' in its war against al-Qaida. He reserves

special criticism for the CIA's torture methods, which he

argues are unproductive."

 

Also in Germany, Rumsfeld faces the most serious accusations

(1109 Democracy Now!, War Crimes Suit Prepared Against

Rumsfeld): "The president of the Center for Constitutional

Rights, Michael Ratner, is heading to Germany today to file a

new case charging outgoing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld

with war crimes for authorizing torture at Guantanamo Bay. In

2004, the Center for Constitutional Rights filed a criminal

complaint in Germany on behalf of several Iraqi citizens who

alleged that a group of US officials committed war crimes in

Iraq. Rumsfeld was among the officials named in the complaint.

The Iraqis claimed they were victims of electric shock, severe

beatings, sleep and food deprivation and sexual abuse."

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 488, 4 December 2006, p. 14

 

 

USA

 

"THE SAME OLD GEORGE" & PARTISAN POLITICS

 

 

In the "Timeline" article above, we mentioned that: "Many

specialists seem to think the Democrats will let Bush 'save his

hide' if he is willing to 'undo' the legislation [on torture,

kidnapping and secret detentions] mentioned above. Otherwise,

he risks following 'Tricky Dick' Nixon into the history books.'

If indications over the last three weeks are reliable, Bush

does not intend to 'save his hide' by cooperating with the new

Democratic Congress, and a major confrontation is in the

making." That confrontation will start with attempts to confirm

John Bolton as US ambassador to the UN, to confirm right-wing

judges previously rejected by Congress and possibly to confirm

Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense.

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 488, 4 December 2006, p. 15

 

 

USA

 

FBI'S $2 MILLION "TERRORIST" EMBARRASSMENT

 

 

On 10 October, the "New York Times" published an excellent

article, "FBI Struggling to Reinvent Itself to Fight Terror",

by Scott Shane and Lowell Bergman, on the Federal Bureau of

Investigations' post-11 September 2001 attempt to fight

terrorism by collecting intelligence instead of immediately

arresting suspects and bringing them to trial. According to the

article, last February, "top FBI officers from across the

nation gathered in a high-security auditorium for the latest

plan to reinvent the crime-fighting agency to take on

terrorism. Philip Mudd, who had just joined the bureau from the

rival Central Intelligence Agency, was pitching a program

called Domain Management, designed to get agents to move beyond

chasing criminal cases and start gathering intelligence ..."

 

"The uneasy transition into a spy organization has prompted

criticism from those who believe that the bureau cannot

competently gather domestic intelligence, and others, including

some insiders, who fear that it can ... The top counter-

terrorism job has turned over repeatedly -- seven people in

five years -- filled mostly by veterans with little expertise

on Islamist movements and terrorist networks. Many counter-

terrorism agents have minimal specialized training. A National

Security Agency executive brought in to reshape the bureau's

intelligence capabilities, Maureen Baginski, departed after

clashing with FBI old-timers. The intelligence units Ms.

Baginski created in the 56 field offices lack clear

instructions and some are 'struggling,' a recent Congressional

study found. And some bureau traditionalists believe that Mr.

Mudd, too, will move on from his job as second in command of

the bureau's new National Security Branch. 'They'll just wait

him out,' a counter-terrorism official said."

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 488, 4 December 2006, p. 23

 

 

BULGARIA

 

ANOTHER "UNEXPLAINED" SUICIDE

 

 

The death, apparently by suicide on 15 November, of Bozhidar

Doychev, the head of Bulgaria's National Intelligence Service

archives, and the 48-hour delay in announcing his death, has

drawn criticism from opposition legislators. Vesselin Metodiev,

of Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (DSB), and others have

accused the intelligence authorities of a cover-up, claiming

there is a "very unpleasant coincidence" between Doychev's

death and new legislation, currently being discussed, which is

aimed at declassifying some of the secret files of the

Darzhavna Sigurnost (DS), the country's now defunct foreign

intelligence service. DS agents acted as proxy assassins on

behalf of the KGB and the DS has been implicated in several

high-profile assassinations plots, including the 13 April 1981

attempt to kill Pope John Paul II in the Vatican and the murder

of Bulgarian dissident, author, and BBC World Service

journalist, Georgi Markov, with a ricin-tipped umbrella at a

bus-stop on Waterloo Bridge, central London, in 1978.

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 488, 4 December 2006, p. 27

 

 

ISRAEL/PALESTINE

 

MILITARY ONLY SOLUTION HAS TROUBLE

 

 

Things are changing in the Israel/Palestine conflict and not

just because the 7 November US Congressional elections put the

Democrats in control. In Israel itself, there seems to be an

increasing realization that no solely military solution will

work. On 24 November, "Ha'aretz" correspondent Gideon Levy

described the situation in the northern Gaza town of Beit

Hanoun in a searing article on Sunday and proposed, half

seriously, that the Israeli colonies removed last year as part

of Israel's so-called "disengagement" from Gaza should be

returned because they would serve "as the last human shield for

a million and a half residents who now comprise one of the most

helpless populations in the world. Incarcerated, without any

assistance, they are liable to starve to death. Exposed,

without any protection, they fall prey to the Israel Defense

Force's operations of vengeance" (1124, The Massacre at Beit

Hanoun, Kathleen Christison [a former CIA political analyst and

has worked on Middle East issues for 30 years, and author of

"Perceptions of Palestine" and "The Wound of Dispossession"]).

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 488, 4 December 2006, p. 29

 

 

LEBANON

 

AFTER ISRAELI ATTACK, HEZBOLLAH WANTS POWER

 

 

Politics are usually considered complicated in Lebanon with all

the Israeli invasions, radical Islamists, Syrian dominance and

Western influence. But actually there are a few simple basic

"facts" to retain. One is that no one wants a strong

independent Lebanese military since it would dominate either

the Muslims or the Christians and cause trouble for either

Syria or Israel. Because there is no strong Lebanese military

to defend the country, Syria, Israel and the West are free to

vie for strategic, even armed, influence. This leaves the

Palestinian refugees, their descendents and most Lebanese Arabs

at the mercy of the Israeli military in southern Lebanon. The

former -- looking for a way to defend themselves -- have only

found Syria, Iran and radical Islamists willing to help. That's

how the Hezbollah got started and they will continue to

dominate southern Lebanon until there is no longer a military

threat from Israel, and associated Israel/Palestine problems

are taken care of. With the recent invasion of southern Lebanon

by the Israeli military opposed only by the Hezbollah, not the

Lebanese army, there is little wonder that the Hezbollah want

to take over the Lebanese government and that Christian

Lebanese leaders are assassinated by Islamic radicals.

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 488, 4 December 2006, p. 31

 

 

IRAN

 

CLEAR ISRAELI/US THREATS OF ATTACK

 

 

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President George W. Bush and

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert all say the Iranian nuclear fuel

program in nearly complete and the two latter add that a

nuclear weapons is not far away. The CIA has found "no

conclusive evidence, as yet, of a secret Iranian nuclear-

weapons program." Who would you believe?

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

<END OF FILE>