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INTELLIGENCE                                ISSN 1245-2122

N. 489, 18 December 2006

Every Two to Three Weeks

Next issue, 8 January 2007

Publishing since 1980

 

Editor

Olivier Schmidt

(intelligence-adi@wanadoo.fr;

http://perso.wanadoo.fr/intelligence-adi)

 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 489, 18 December 2006

 

FRONT PAGE

 

RUSSIA - DEATH IN LONDON OF A SPY p.1

 

TECHNOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES

 

TIMELINE FROM 30 NOVEMBER TO 15 DECEMBER p.2

DATA MINING AS INEFFECTIVE COUNTER-TERRORISM p.3

CHENEY'S INAPPROPRIATE LANGUAGE AT DOE p.4

TERRORISM - Cause Not Poverty, But Humiliation. p.5

ARTICLES, REPORTS & BOOKS p.6

 

PEOPLE

 

USA - JAMES A. BAKER III p.7

    - John Bolton. p.8

    - Jeane Kirkpatrick. p.9

CANADA - GIULIANO ZACCARDELLI p.10

GREAT BRITAIN - Richard Doll. p.11

NORTHERN IRELAND - JOHN WEIR p.12

ITALY - MARIO SCARAMELLA p.13

VIETNAM - PHAM XUAN AN p.14

 

AGENDA

 

COMING EVENTS THROUGH 3 MARCH 2007 p.15

 

INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD

 

USA - ATS SCANDAL JUST IN TIME FOR "SNOOPGATE" p.16

    - FBI STING/ENTRAPMENT HAVING TROUBLE p.17

    - ISG REPORT COMES AS EXPECTED p.18

    - PADILLA, CAMBONE, TORTURE & HABEAS CORPUS p.19

    - BUSH "SURREALISM", PAPER-TRAIL VOTES, DEM CONGRESS p.20

    - BUSH WHITE HOUSE & PENTAGON MEDIA SUBPOENAS p.21

    - DOD NEWS BETTER THAN THE USUAL "BAD NEWS" p.22

    - OUTGOING GOP SYSTEM OF LOBBYING & CORRUPTION p.23

    - DEMOCRATS PUT CIA ON BUDGETING COURSE p.24

GREAT BRITAIN - THE SAUDI "CORRUPTION" CONNECTION p.25

              - DEATH IN PARIS OF A PRINCESS p.26

NORTHERN IRELAND - NEW MI5 HEADQUARTERS (NI) p.27

IRELAND - BRITAIN FACILITATED ACTS OF TERRORISM p.28

NETHERLANDS - CASE IT-02-54 p.29

ITALY - Bye Bye Pollari, Mancini, Pompa & Others. p.30

WESTERN EUROPE - BERN CLUB, SPAIN, ITALY & BRITAIN p.31

RUSSIA - Insecurity in Regions & Cities. p.32

LATIN AMERICA - MEXICO, VENEZUELA, CUBA & CHILE p.33

AFRICA - "Free Fall" in Chad, Sudan & CAR. p.34

ISRAEL - BIGGEST CASE SINCE POLLARD p.35

ISRAEL/PALESTINE - INTERESTING BUT CONFLICTING SIGNALS p.36

LEBANON - SIT-IN/CAMP-OUT IN BEIRUT p.37

IRAQ - SAUDIS "SIDELINE" BUSH & US MILITARY p.38

IRAN - More Talk & Still Little Agreement. p.39

AFGHANISTAN - TARNISHED US-UK "SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP" p.40

            - THE "NORMAL BAD NEWS" FROM THE FRONT p.41

INDONESIA - US ANTI-ISLAMISM BRINGS IN RUSSIAN ARMS p.42

ASIA - North Korea & Fiji. p.43

 

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 1

 

 

RUSSIA

 

DEATH IN LONDON OF A SPY

 

 

On 7 December, Alexander Litvinenko was buried in Highgate

Cemetery, north London, his coffin carried to the grave side by

a roll call of Russian President Vladimir Putin's enemies in

exile. He now lies in the same cemetery as Karl Marx and other

well-known exiles. At the grave side, a slightly under-reported

event took place. Marina Litvinenko, Litvinenko's widow,

reportedly wanted a nonreligious ceremony, but a Muslim cleric

performed Islamic rites in accordance with Litvinenko's alleged

wishes. Indeed, Litvinenko's father, Valter, had revealed three

days before to Radio Free Europe (RFE) that his son converted

to Islam shortly before his death: "Sasha had been thinking

about becoming a Muslim for some time because he was fairly

critical of what had been happening in the hierarchy of our

[Russian Orthodox] Church." Add to this the fact that

Litvinenko is a native of the Caucasus, that there are 98,500

mostly unfaltering Goggle entries under "'Boris Berezovsky' &

'Chechnya'", and that Berezovsky and US President George W.

Bush have met and done business together, and one begins to

understand that there more than meets the eye -- or what the

mainstream media reveals -- in the murder of Litvinenko.

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 2

 

 

TIMELINE FROM 30 NOVEMBER TO 15 DECEMBER

 

 

The past fortnight's most important development on the

political scene is probably the publication of the Iraq Study

Group (ISG) report. As expected, it openly criticized the Bush

White House's war in Iraq and called for changes which were

just as openly rejected by George Bush who no longer seems to

have any powerful allies on whom he can rely.

 

"On the ground" in Iraq, the "civil war" continues and has

provoked a reaction from the Saudi regime which seems to fear a

region catastrophe and a systematic elimination of Sunni

Muslims in Iraq at the hands of Iranian-backed Shiite Muslims.

These developments appear to have sidelined the Bush White

House as the killing goes on in Iraq.

 

And the situation doesn't seem to be improving in Afghanistan

where Bush's closest ally, the British, have openly criticized

the CIA and its involvement in that "good war".

 

Back in Washington, the Democrats are trying to work together

to "undo" what the Bush regime has done and bring the US back

into the league of Western nations. But the job is very

demanding and the Democratic majority is quite unstable.

 

Other major conflicts have disappeared from the headlines. This

includes the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran, and the

Israel/Palestine problem, particularly with the partisan

killings between Fatah and Hamas. Although there may be some

major developments over the Christmas-New Year's holiday, it

doesn't seem that likely unless one of these simmering

conflicts suddenly explodes, which is not typical of this

season.

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 3

 

 

DATA MINING AS INEFFECTIVE COUNTER-TERRORISM

 

 

In a new report, "Effective Counter-Terrorism and the Limited

Role of Predictive Data Mining," Jim Harper, director of

information policy studies at the Cato Institute, and Jeff

Jonas, engineer and chief scientist with IBM's Entity Analytic

Solutions Group, explain that data mining is costly,

ineffective, and a violation of fundamental liberties (1215

EPIC, Report: Data Mining Costly, Ineffective, Violates

Liberties). In data mining, the government analyzes private

data from large numbers of people. Data mining is ineffective,

the "statistical likelihood of false positives is so high that

predictive data mining will inevitably waste resources and

threaten civil liberties," according to the report. The

government is facing opposition from groups protesting its use

of data mining in Homeland Security's "Automated Targeting

System," a federal database that creates secret terrorist

ratings on tens of millions of American citizens (see article

in this issue).

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 10

 

 

CANADA - GIULIANO ZACCARDELLI

 

 

Shades of Watergate when the head of the FBI dumped

incriminating evidence against President "Tricky Dick" Nixon in

the Potomac River. It looks like Canada has it's equivalent in

the head of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP),

Commissioner Giuliano Zaccardelli. On 6 December, he resigned

as Canada's top policeman, a day after he admitted misleading

legislators about how the "Mounties" had botched the case of a

Canadian citizen kidnapped and secretly deported to Syria by

the CIA, and reportedly tortured for several months as a

suspected terrorist before being released without charges.

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 13

 

 

ITALY - MARIO SCARAMELLA

 

 

The poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in London has brought a

lot of strange fish to the surface, but done are as strange as

Italian wheeler-dealer Mario Scaramella (1209 NYT, Red Herring

in Russian Spy Mystery? Italian's Words About Himself Are Hard

to Square With Reality, Ian Fisher): "He first claimed to have

been hit with five times the lethal does of polonium 210 ...

Then, two days ago, he walked out of the hospital, with minute

traces of radioactive poisoning, but otherwise perfectly fine

... He has claimed to be a professor at the University of

Naples, which in turn claims never to have heard of him. He was

caught on tape bragging that Silvio Berlusconi, the former

Italian prime minister, was considering him for a top job at

the United Nations. He later had to admit that he never even

met Berlusconi ... his career here [Rome] -- which included

trying to prove that some top Italian center-left politicians,

including Prime Minister Romano Prodi, are Russian spies..."

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 15

 

 

COMING EVENTS THROUGH 3 MARCH 2007

 

 

20 December, Paris, Institut National des Hautes Etudes de

Securite & the Centre Francais de Recherche sur le

Renseignement, "Intelligence and Civil Defense", hedfc.org.

 

20 December, deadline for proposals for the University of

Calgary, Alberta, 9th Annual Society for Military and Strategic

Studies Student Conference, "War and Security - The Costs of

Conflict", 2-3 March 2007, stratnet@ucalgary.ca

 

31 December, deadline for proposals for the annual meeting of

the International Congress of the History of Technology

(ICOHTEC) Social History of Military Technology section meeting

on 14-18 August 2007, in Copenhagen, Denmark, hackerb@si.edu.

 

9-11 January, Crystal City, Virginia, Surface Navy Association

Meeting.

 

15 January, deadline for contributors to "American Espionage -

A Historical Encyclopedia". The author is seeking contributors

to write entries for a historical encyclopedia of American

espionage and intelligence to be published by ABC-CLIO. Entries

range in length from 300-2000 words. Those contributing more

than 5,000 words will received a copy of the completed work.

Contact: guerrisw@jmu.edu.

 

15 January, deadline for contributors to the ABC-CLIO

encyclopedia, "American Espionage: A Historical Encyclopedia",

guerrisw@jmu.edu.

 

15 January, deadline for proposals, 14th International

Symposium on Digital Insecurity and Society Vulnerability, 14-

15 June, Paris, creis.sgdg.org.

 

31 January, deadline for proposals for the special issue on

"Cryptology and Steganography in Malware" for the "Journal in

Computer Virology", efiliol@esat.terre.defense.gouv.fr.

 

31 January-2 February, San Diego, California, WEST 2007.

 

2 February, deadline for proposals for SAFECOMP 2007, the 26th

International Conference on Computer Safety, Reliability and

Security, 18-21 September 2007, Nuremberg, Germany,

saglietti@informatik.uni-erlangen.de.

 

7-9 February, Washington, Association for Unmanned Vehicles

System International, Unmanned Systems Program Review 200,

www.auvsi.org/events.

 

7-9 February, Washington, SGTP 2007.

 

18-22 February, Abu Dhabi, UAE, IDEX 2007.

 

19-22 February, Washington, Satellite 2007.

 

20-21 February 2007, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, IV International

Congress for Victims of Terrorism - Spanish & Colombian

Partners Share Experience, mipt.org/Congress/.

 

21 February, Ottawa, Canada, Assessing Current Privacy Issues.

Riley Information Services, rileyis.com/seminars/.

 

26-28 February, Arlington, Virginia, NDIA SO/LIC.

 

2 March, University of Calgary, Alberta, 9th Annual Society for

Military and Strategic Studies Student Conference, "War and

Security - The Costs of Conflict", stratnet@ucalgary.ca.

 

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 17

 

 

USA

 

FBI STING/ENTRAPMENT HAVING TROUBLE

 

 

Time to look back at some "sting operations" which show how the

"G-Men" always "get their man". In our 2005 book, "The

Intelligence Files" (Clarity Press), chapter 1, "Car-bombed

Environmentalist and the FBI: COINTELPRO Resurrected?" (pp. 18-

22), we wrote: "the court ordered the FBI to turn over a long-

withheld San Francisco field office file on an Arizona Earth

First! FBI sting operation. The operation, which ran from 1988

to 1990, involved 'agents provocateurs', FBI Agent Michael Fain

and paid FBI informant Ron Frazier. The two gradually won the

trust of a small group of activists, then convinced them to cut

down a power line. The FBI operatives bought the tools, taught

the activists how to use them, chose the site, drove the

activists there and, of course, busted them in the act" (p.

21).

 

More recently, it's "terrorists" the G-Men are supposed to get.

In August, "In These Times" (A Terrifying Distraction, Salim

Muwakkil) described such an operation: "The arrest of seven men

in Miami last month on specious terrorism charges smells

strongly like a case of governmental entrapment. The men, six

of whom are of Haitain descent, allegedly planned to blow up

various targets -- including government buildings and the Sears

Tower in Chicago -- but officials found no plans, explosives or

any equipment whatsoever that could be used to effect the plot.

In fact, the FBI informant who infiltrated the group posing as

an al-Qaida representative is the one who initiated the idea of

blowing up government buildings." Sounds familiar, n'est-ce

pas?

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 35

 

 

ISRAEL

 

BIGGEST CASE SINCE POLLARD

 

 

The Israeli government, the US State Department and, to a large

extent, the international media, have been remarkably quiet

about the case of Petty Officer 3rd Class, Ariel J. Weinmann

who appeared before a panel of senior US Fleet Forces Command

officers on 25 July at Norfolk Naval Air Station, Virginia,

charged with desertion, larceny, destroying US military

property, failure to obey regulations and espionage.

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 38

 

 

IRAQ

 

SAUDIS "SIDELINE" BUSH & US MILITARY

 

 

While the mainstream media and the political scene are occupied

by the Iraq Study Group report and increasingly horrific events

in Iraq, few seem to have noticed a major development reported

by Robert Parry in "Consortium News" (1213, A Way Forward, a

Look Back). Indeed, Parry stresses the association between two

events hardly mentioned by the major media: the abrupt

resignation of the Saudi ambassador to the United States and,

two weeks earlier, Saudi King Abdullah's summoning of US Vice

President Richard Cheney to Riyadh to express the kingdom's

displeasure with developments in Iraq. As Parry notes, these

events and "the postponement of George W. Bush's new Iraq

policy speech mark a troubling new chapter for a US strategy

for the Middle East that continues to spiral toward

catastrophe". In short, one of the region's major power, and a

Bush ally, doesn't like what Bush is doing... or not doing.

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

 

Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 40

 

 

AFGHANISTAN

 

TARNISHED US-UK "SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP"

 

 

Cracks have begun to appear in the so-called "special

relationship" between London and Washington following US

criticism of British military strategy in southern Iraq, and

British allegations of CIA interference and influence in the

unexpected 7 December decision by Afghan President Hamid Karzai

to sack Mohammed Daud as governor of Helmand province. Karzai

said he acted after taking advice from "other powerful Western

players." British sources claim the CIA had "deliberately

undermined" Governor Doud who was appointed less than six

months ago when his predecessor was sacked after British

intelligence accused him of opium trafficking. Doud had been

described in various British press reports as Whitehall's

"protege" and a "key player" in Britain's anti-drug strategy in

the region. In the US "conservative" media, it was a different

story. Doud was repeatedly criticized for being "soft on the

Taliban" after he brokered a ceasefire between the British Army

and Taliban fighters which allowed the British to withdraw from

the town of Musa Qala. Meanwhile, the usual suspects in

Congress and the neo-con, think-tank, armchair strategists in

Washington accused Doud of "handing back Musa Qala and other

towns in the province to Taliban control."

(...cut...)

---------------------------------------------

<END OF FILE>