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INTELLIGENCE ISSN 1245-2122
N. 489, 18 December 2006
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TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 489, 18 December 2006
RUSSIA - DEATH IN LONDON OF A SPY p.1
TECHNOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES
TIMELINE FROM 30 NOVEMBER TO 15 DECEMBER p.2
DATA MINING AS INEFFECTIVE COUNTER-TERRORISM p.3
CHENEY'S INAPPROPRIATE LANGUAGE AT DOE p.4
TERRORISM - Cause Not Poverty, But Humiliation. p.5
ARTICLES, REPORTS & BOOKS p.6
USA - JAMES A. BAKER III p.7
- John Bolton. p.8
- Jeane Kirkpatrick. p.9
CANADA - GIULIANO ZACCARDELLI p.10
GREAT BRITAIN - Richard Doll. p.11
NORTHERN IRELAND - JOHN WEIR p.12
ITALY - MARIO SCARAMELLA p.13
VIETNAM - PHAM XUAN AN p.14
COMING EVENTS THROUGH 3 MARCH 2007 p.15
INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD
USA - ATS SCANDAL JUST IN TIME FOR "SNOOPGATE" p.16
- FBI STING/ENTRAPMENT HAVING TROUBLE p.17
- ISG REPORT COMES AS EXPECTED p.18
- PADILLA, CAMBONE, TORTURE & HABEAS CORPUS p.19
- BUSH "SURREALISM", PAPER-TRAIL VOTES, DEM CONGRESS p.20
- BUSH WHITE HOUSE & PENTAGON MEDIA SUBPOENAS p.21
- DOD NEWS BETTER THAN THE USUAL "BAD NEWS" p.22
- OUTGOING GOP SYSTEM OF LOBBYING & CORRUPTION p.23
- DEMOCRATS PUT CIA ON BUDGETING COURSE p.24
GREAT BRITAIN - THE SAUDI "CORRUPTION" CONNECTION p.25
- DEATH IN PARIS OF A PRINCESS p.26
NORTHERN IRELAND - NEW MI5 HEADQUARTERS (NI) p.27
IRELAND - BRITAIN FACILITATED ACTS OF TERRORISM p.28
NETHERLANDS - CASE IT-02-54 p.29
ITALY - Bye Bye Pollari, Mancini, Pompa & Others. p.30
WESTERN EUROPE - BERN CLUB, SPAIN, ITALY & BRITAIN p.31
RUSSIA - Insecurity in Regions & Cities. p.32
LATIN AMERICA - MEXICO, VENEZUELA, CUBA & CHILE p.33
AFRICA - "Free Fall" in Chad, Sudan & CAR. p.34
ISRAEL - BIGGEST CASE SINCE POLLARD p.35
ISRAEL/PALESTINE - INTERESTING BUT CONFLICTING SIGNALS p.36
LEBANON - SIT-IN/CAMP-OUT IN BEIRUT p.37
IRAQ - SAUDIS "SIDELINE" BUSH & US MILITARY p.38
IRAN - More Talk & Still Little Agreement. p.39
AFGHANISTAN - TARNISHED US-UK "SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP" p.40
- THE "NORMAL BAD NEWS" FROM THE FRONT p.41
INDONESIA - US ANTI-ISLAMISM BRINGS IN RUSSIAN ARMS p.42
ASIA - North Korea & Fiji. p.43
Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 1
DEATH IN LONDON OF A SPY
On 7 December, Alexander Litvinenko was buried in Highgate
Cemetery, north London, his coffin carried to the grave side by
a roll call of Russian President Vladimir Putin's enemies in
exile. He now lies in the same cemetery as Karl Marx and other
well-known exiles. At the grave side, a slightly under-reported
event took place. Marina Litvinenko, Litvinenko's widow,
reportedly wanted a nonreligious ceremony, but a Muslim cleric
performed Islamic rites in accordance with Litvinenko's alleged
wishes. Indeed, Litvinenko's father, Valter, had revealed three
days before to Radio Free Europe (RFE) that his son converted
to Islam shortly before his death: "Sasha had been thinking
about becoming a Muslim for some time because he was fairly
critical of what had been happening in the hierarchy of our
[Russian Orthodox] Church." Add to this the fact that
Litvinenko is a native of the Caucasus, that there are 98,500
mostly unfaltering Goggle entries under "'Boris Berezovsky' &
'Chechnya'", and that Berezovsky and US President George W.
Bush have met and done business together, and one begins to
understand that there more than meets the eye -- or what the
mainstream media reveals -- in the murder of Litvinenko.
Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 2
TIMELINE FROM 30 NOVEMBER TO 15 DECEMBER
The past fortnight's most important development on the
political scene is probably the publication of the Iraq Study
Group (ISG) report. As expected, it openly criticized the Bush
White House's war in Iraq and called for changes which were
just as openly rejected by George Bush who no longer seems to
have any powerful allies on whom he can rely.
"On the ground" in Iraq, the "civil war" continues and has
provoked a reaction from the Saudi regime which seems to fear a
region catastrophe and a systematic elimination of Sunni
Muslims in Iraq at the hands of Iranian-backed Shiite Muslims.
These developments appear to have sidelined the Bush White
House as the killing goes on in Iraq.
And the situation doesn't seem to be improving in Afghanistan
where Bush's closest ally, the British, have openly criticized
the CIA and its involvement in that "good war".
Back in Washington, the Democrats are trying to work together
to "undo" what the Bush regime has done and bring the US back
into the league of Western nations. But the job is very
demanding and the Democratic majority is quite unstable.
Other major conflicts have disappeared from the headlines. This
includes the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran, and the
Israel/Palestine problem, particularly with the partisan
killings between Fatah and Hamas. Although there may be some
major developments over the Christmas-New Year's holiday, it
doesn't seem that likely unless one of these simmering
conflicts suddenly explodes, which is not typical of this
Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 3
DATA MINING AS INEFFECTIVE COUNTER-TERRORISM
In a new report, "Effective Counter-Terrorism and the Limited
Role of Predictive Data Mining," Jim Harper, director of
information policy studies at the Cato Institute, and Jeff
Jonas, engineer and chief scientist with IBM's Entity Analytic
Solutions Group, explain that data mining is costly,
ineffective, and a violation of fundamental liberties (1215
EPIC, Report: Data Mining Costly, Ineffective, Violates
Liberties). In data mining, the government analyzes private
data from large numbers of people. Data mining is ineffective,
the "statistical likelihood of false positives is so high that
predictive data mining will inevitably waste resources and
threaten civil liberties," according to the report. The
government is facing opposition from groups protesting its use
of data mining in Homeland Security's "Automated Targeting
System," a federal database that creates secret terrorist
ratings on tens of millions of American citizens (see article
in this issue).
Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 10
CANADA - GIULIANO ZACCARDELLI
Shades of Watergate when the head of the FBI dumped
incriminating evidence against President "Tricky Dick" Nixon in
the Potomac River. It looks like Canada has it's equivalent in
the head of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP),
Commissioner Giuliano Zaccardelli. On 6 December, he resigned
as Canada's top policeman, a day after he admitted misleading
legislators about how the "Mounties" had botched the case of a
Canadian citizen kidnapped and secretly deported to Syria by
the CIA, and reportedly tortured for several months as a
suspected terrorist before being released without charges.
Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 13
ITALY - MARIO SCARAMELLA
The poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in London has brought a
lot of strange fish to the surface, but done are as strange as
Italian wheeler-dealer Mario Scaramella (1209 NYT, Red Herring
in Russian Spy Mystery? Italian's Words About Himself Are Hard
to Square With Reality, Ian Fisher): "He first claimed to have
been hit with five times the lethal does of polonium 210 ...
Then, two days ago, he walked out of the hospital, with minute
traces of radioactive poisoning, but otherwise perfectly fine
... He has claimed to be a professor at the University of
Naples, which in turn claims never to have heard of him. He was
caught on tape bragging that Silvio Berlusconi, the former
Italian prime minister, was considering him for a top job at
the United Nations. He later had to admit that he never even
met Berlusconi ... his career here [Rome] -- which included
trying to prove that some top Italian center-left politicians,
including Prime Minister Romano Prodi, are Russian spies..."
Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 15
COMING EVENTS THROUGH 3 MARCH 2007
20 December, Paris, Institut National des Hautes Etudes de
Securite & the Centre Francais de Recherche sur le
Renseignement, "Intelligence and Civil Defense", hedfc.org.
20 December, deadline for proposals for the University of
Calgary, Alberta, 9th Annual Society for Military and Strategic
Studies Student Conference, "War and Security - The Costs of
Conflict", 2-3 March 2007, firstname.lastname@example.org
31 December, deadline for proposals for the annual meeting of
the International Congress of the History of Technology
(ICOHTEC) Social History of Military Technology section meeting
on 14-18 August 2007, in Copenhagen, Denmark, email@example.com.
9-11 January, Crystal City, Virginia, Surface Navy Association
15 January, deadline for contributors to "American Espionage -
A Historical Encyclopedia". The author is seeking contributors
to write entries for a historical encyclopedia of American
espionage and intelligence to be published by ABC-CLIO. Entries
range in length from 300-2000 words. Those contributing more
than 5,000 words will received a copy of the completed work.
15 January, deadline for contributors to the ABC-CLIO
encyclopedia, "American Espionage: A Historical Encyclopedia",
15 January, deadline for proposals, 14th International
Symposium on Digital Insecurity and Society Vulnerability, 14-
15 June, Paris, creis.sgdg.org.
31 January, deadline for proposals for the special issue on
"Cryptology and Steganography in Malware" for the "Journal in
Computer Virology", firstname.lastname@example.org.
31 January-2 February, San Diego, California, WEST 2007.
2 February, deadline for proposals for SAFECOMP 2007, the 26th
International Conference on Computer Safety, Reliability and
Security, 18-21 September 2007, Nuremberg, Germany,
7-9 February, Washington, Association for Unmanned Vehicles
System International, Unmanned Systems Program Review 200,
7-9 February, Washington, SGTP 2007.
18-22 February, Abu Dhabi, UAE, IDEX 2007.
19-22 February, Washington, Satellite 2007.
20-21 February 2007, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, IV International
Congress for Victims of Terrorism - Spanish & Colombian
Partners Share Experience, mipt.org/Congress/.
21 February, Ottawa, Canada, Assessing Current Privacy Issues.
Riley Information Services, rileyis.com/seminars/.
26-28 February, Arlington, Virginia, NDIA SO/LIC.
2 March, University of Calgary, Alberta, 9th Annual Society for
Military and Strategic Studies Student Conference, "War and
Security - The Costs of Conflict", email@example.com.
Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 17
FBI STING/ENTRAPMENT HAVING TROUBLE
Time to look back at some "sting operations" which show how the
"G-Men" always "get their man". In our 2005 book, "The
Intelligence Files" (Clarity Press), chapter 1, "Car-bombed
Environmentalist and the FBI: COINTELPRO Resurrected?" (pp. 18-
22), we wrote: "the court ordered the FBI to turn over a long-
withheld San Francisco field office file on an Arizona Earth
First! FBI sting operation. The operation, which ran from 1988
to 1990, involved 'agents provocateurs', FBI Agent Michael Fain
and paid FBI informant Ron Frazier. The two gradually won the
trust of a small group of activists, then convinced them to cut
down a power line. The FBI operatives bought the tools, taught
the activists how to use them, chose the site, drove the
activists there and, of course, busted them in the act" (p.
More recently, it's "terrorists" the G-Men are supposed to get.
In August, "In These Times" (A Terrifying Distraction, Salim
Muwakkil) described such an operation: "The arrest of seven men
in Miami last month on specious terrorism charges smells
strongly like a case of governmental entrapment. The men, six
of whom are of Haitain descent, allegedly planned to blow up
various targets -- including government buildings and the Sears
Tower in Chicago -- but officials found no plans, explosives or
any equipment whatsoever that could be used to effect the plot.
In fact, the FBI informant who infiltrated the group posing as
an al-Qaida representative is the one who initiated the idea of
blowing up government buildings." Sounds familiar, n'est-ce
Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 35
BIGGEST CASE SINCE POLLARD
The Israeli government, the US State Department and, to a large
extent, the international media, have been remarkably quiet
about the case of Petty Officer 3rd Class, Ariel J. Weinmann
who appeared before a panel of senior US Fleet Forces Command
officers on 25 July at Norfolk Naval Air Station, Virginia,
charged with desertion, larceny, destroying US military
property, failure to obey regulations and espionage.
Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 38
SAUDIS "SIDELINE" BUSH & US MILITARY
While the mainstream media and the political scene are occupied
by the Iraq Study Group report and increasingly horrific events
in Iraq, few seem to have noticed a major development reported
by Robert Parry in "Consortium News" (1213, A Way Forward, a
Look Back). Indeed, Parry stresses the association between two
events hardly mentioned by the major media: the abrupt
resignation of the Saudi ambassador to the United States and,
two weeks earlier, Saudi King Abdullah's summoning of US Vice
President Richard Cheney to Riyadh to express the kingdom's
displeasure with developments in Iraq. As Parry notes, these
events and "the postponement of George W. Bush's new Iraq
policy speech mark a troubling new chapter for a US strategy
for the Middle East that continues to spiral toward
catastrophe". In short, one of the region's major power, and a
Bush ally, doesn't like what Bush is doing... or not doing.
Intelligence, N. 489, 18 December 2006, p. 40
TARNISHED US-UK "SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP"
Cracks have begun to appear in the so-called "special
relationship" between London and Washington following US
criticism of British military strategy in southern Iraq, and
British allegations of CIA interference and influence in the
unexpected 7 December decision by Afghan President Hamid Karzai
to sack Mohammed Daud as governor of Helmand province. Karzai
said he acted after taking advice from "other powerful Western
players." British sources claim the CIA had "deliberately
undermined" Governor Doud who was appointed less than six
months ago when his predecessor was sacked after British
intelligence accused him of opium trafficking. Doud had been
described in various British press reports as Whitehall's
"protege" and a "key player" in Britain's anti-drug strategy in
the region. In the US "conservative" media, it was a different
story. Doud was repeatedly criticized for being "soft on the
Taliban" after he brokered a ceasefire between the British Army
and Taliban fighters which allowed the British to withdraw from
the town of Musa Qala. Meanwhile, the usual suspects in
Congress and the neo-con, think-tank, armchair strategists in
Washington accused Doud of "handing back Musa Qala and other
towns in the province to Taliban control."
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