Subscriptions for 2011 are 180 euros for indidivuals and 380 euros for organizations. Three articles, the Agenda and the Table of Contents of issue 573 below.
INTELLIGENCE ISSN 1245-2122
N. 573, 21 February 2011
Every Two to Three Weeks
Next issue, 14 March 2011
Publishing since 1980
Yahoo Group: Intelligence_ADI
tel 33 (0)1 40 51 85 19;
ADI, 16 rue des Ecoles, 75005 Paris, France
European Correspondent: Michael Quilligan;
tel 00.31.(0)38.4204869, firstname.lastname@example.org
Copyright ADI 2011, reproduction in any form forbidden without explicit
authorization from the ADI. A one year subscription (19 issues with article
index) is 380 euros. Reduced rates for personal subscriptions (180 euros).
Payment by credit cardpossible.
TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 573, 21 February 2011
EGYPT - BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR p.1
TECHNIQUES AND TECHNOLOGY
TIMELINE FROM 6 FEBRUARY TO 18 FEBRUARY p.2
WIKILEAKS’ DESTRUCTION “HITS A SNAG” OR TWO p.3
MQ-1 PREDATOR'S "WEAKEST LINK" p.4
CYBER-WAR OFFENSIVE TARGETS HMG p.5
NEW NATO HQ p.6
"INDICTMENT" CALL AGAINST BUSH PUBLISHED p.7
ANTI-PIRACY HIGH-TECH SYSTEM p.8
ENVIRONMENT, WEATHER & WORLD WATER CRISIS p.9
ECONOMICS – Wealth Gap, Chomsky & Madoff. p.10
CYBER SECURITY - "Anonymous" vs. “White Hats”. p.11
USA - James A. Everett. p.12
ISRAEL - BENNY GANTZ p.13
TAIWAN - LO HSEIN-CHE p.14
CALLS & COMING EVENTS THROUGH 15 APRIL p.15
INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD
USA - RADICAL RIGHT ENTERS US POLITICS p.16
- “TRADITIONAL” POLITICS’ TEETERING p.17
- CIA WORKS HARD FOR ITS “BAD PRESS” p.18
– FBI, Egypt, Patriot Act & Cop Beating. p.19
- Torture Policy & Bush’s Swiss Trip. p.20
- DoD “Christians” & 1971 Pentagon Papers. p.21
CANADA - WHY A FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE? p.22
GREAT BRITAIN - "HOME-GROWN" TERRORISM PROBLEM p.23
- ANOTHER COMPROMISE IN ANTI-TERRORISM p.24
WESTERN EUROPE - ITALY, FRANCE & GREAT BRITAIN p.25
EASTERN EUROPE - CONTINUED ATTACKS IN RUSSIA p.26
LATIN AMERICA - US Immigration Agent Shot in Mexico. p.27
AFRICA - TUNISIA, LIBYA, SUDAN & COTE D’IVOIRE p.28
EGYPT - ARMY CARRIES OUT “AMERICAN COUP D’ETAT” p.29
ISRAEL - MISSING-IN-ACTION NGO USED BY MOSSAD p.30
ISRAEL/PALESTINE - TAKING A BACKSEAT TO REGIONAL REVOLT p.31
OMAN - UAE ESPIONAGE NETWORK UNCOVERED p.32
IRAQ – 48 Dead in Samarra Bombing. p.33
IRAN - UK "BREACHING" INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS? p.34
- APPLAUDING A REVOLT AT THE DOORSTEP p.35
MIDDLE EAST - BAHRAIN, YEMEN & POPULAR REVOLTS p.36
AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN - RAYMOND DAVIS, PETRAEUS’ NIE & TALIBAN p.37
AUSTRALIA - KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON CHINA p.38
ASIA - KOREAS, INDIA, PAKISTAN & CHINA p.39
Intelligence, N. 573, 21 February 2011, p. 1
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR
Replacing former president Hosni Mubarak with a Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi, may not be the "freedom" many Egyptians were hoping for when they took to the streets of Cairo and other cities almost a month ago. The military junta has dissolved the country's parliament, suspended the constitution, has the power to issue new laws during a transition period (including banning strikes to prevent further disruption over pay and further damage to the economy), and plans to remain in power for at least six months, or until elections are held for both houses of parliament and the presidency at an unspecified date in the future. This leaves open the bloody option of an indefinite postponement "for security reasons" as the consequence of a mid-summer high-profile "terrorist" attack (perhaps targeting tourists) to generate international support for extended military rule.
Even if "free elections" take place as planned in mid-autumn, the man designated to lay the groundwork, ex-intelligence boss and the country's torturer in chief, Vice President Omar Suleiman, has a pretty poor track record when it comes to honoring the democratic process. According to a Wikileaks-released diplomatic cable, published by the Norwegian "Aftenposten", Suleiman promised Major General Amos Gilad, head of the Israeli Defense Ministry's Diplomatic Security Bureau (DSB), during a secret visit to Cairo in September 2005, that he would "take care of Gaza" and prevent Hamas winning the Palestinian elections scheduled for January 2006, which Hamas did win. Gilad reported the visit to US diplomats in Tel Aviv, telling them that Suleiman did not elaborate on how the Egyptian National Intelligence Directorate (ENID) would prevent the election victory of Hamas. The US diplomats briefed the State Department in Washington, telling them that Suleiman opposes Hamas because of fears that an Islamic leadership in Gaza "will strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt."
Suleiman was always Israel's preferred choice to succeed Mubarak. In an August 2008 cable, classified by US diplomat Luis Moreno, a senior adviser to the Israeli Defense Ministry, David Hacham, is quoted as telling US diplomats that the Israeli Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, following a visit to Cairo, was "shocked by Mubarak's aged appearance and slurred speech". Hackman, however, was "full of praise for Suleiman", according to Moreno.
COMMENTS -- The Egyptian military, one of the country's most powerful institutions, received $1.33 billion in military aid from the US in 2010. It has dozens of factories throughout the country manufacturing weapons as well as consumer goods, and is exempt from laws that apply to the private sector. According to the Global Fire Power Web site, the armed forces have a combined troop strength of around 450,000 active personnel. Yuval Steinitz, former chair of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, estimates that the Egyptian Air Force (EAF) has the same number of modern warplanes as the Israeli Air Force (IAF), and far more Western-built tanks, artillery, anti-aircraft batteries and warships than the Israeli military. In January 2007, the "Jerusalem Post" reported that Egypt was planning to launch its first spy satellite, EgyptSat 1 (Israeli already has several in orbit), and is planning to launch three more by 2014. None of the military communiques issued since Mumbarak fled Cairo (for the heavily-guarded presidential compound in Sharm el-Sheikh) mentioned the continuing incarceration of political prisoners, or an investigation into the extra-judicial deaths of from 300 (official) to 1,000 (NGO) persons during the "revolution".
TECHNIQUES AND TECHNOLOGY
Intelligence, N. 573, 21 February 2011, p. 2
TIMELINE FROM 6 FEBRUARY TO 18 FEBRUARY
In our preceding issue of "Intelligence", we mentioned that "During the past year or two, conflicts in Afghanistan/Pakistan (AfPak) and in
Israel/Palestine (IsPal) have almost systematically been among the dominant security and intelligence topics treated by world media." Both were near the top
of that issue of "Intelligence" topics, but they had been "clearly surpassed by the two new major topics: Egypt (as part of Middle East) and Tunisia (as part of
Africa)." Now however, those two topics, AfPak and IsPal, are no long in the top tier, which consists of only Egypt and the US radical right, which has now entered mainstream US politics and is causing major trouble.
The middle tier of topics consists of AfPak, Africa, Western Europe, Middle East, Wikileaks, IsPal, US domestic politics, and the CIA, respectively. The lower tier consists of Iran, Eastern Europe, environment, Asia, FBI, US torture policy, economics, Dept. of Defense, Iraq, and Latin America.
This is reflected in the volume and number of press reports on these various topics: Egypt, 14 Kilobytes, 56 X reports; US radical right, 13K, 27X; AfPak, 8K, 28X; Africa, 7K, 40X; Western Europe, 6K, 27X; Middle East, 6K, 26X; Wikileaks, 6K, 17X; IsPal, 6K, 15X; US domestic politics, 5K, 10X; CIA, 5K, 10X; Iran, 4K, 17X; Eastern Europe, 3K, 10X; environment, 3K, 8X; Asia, 2K, 9X; FBI, 2K, 5X; US torture policy, 2K, 5X; economics, 2K, 4X; DoD, 2K, 2X; Iraq, 1K, 1X; Latin America, 1K, 1X.
There have been 18 rather important media releases during the past three weeks.
Concerning the US radical right:
0206 LAT, Koch brothers now at heart of GOP power
0213 Media Matters, Fox News Insider - "Stuff Is Just Made Up"
0215 Mother Jones, Will South Dakota Execute Doctors for Performing Abortions?
0215 The Nation, Wisconsin - A "Dictator" Governor Sets Out to Cut Wages, Slash Benefits and Destroy Public Unions
0216 Buzz Flash, Clarence Thomas is a Role Model for Conflict of Interest and Supreme Injustice
0217 Democracy Now, Right-wing Republicans are on the verge of voting to defund Planned Parenthood
0218 Progress Report, Radical Right - Conservatives Divided
0208 Time, Courtroom Conflict - Julian Assange's Prosecutor Accused of Anti-Men Bias
0209 WSJ, Assange Probe Hits Snag - Inquiry Suggests WikiLeaks Founder Didn't Induce Soldier to Leak Documents
0210 Truthout, The Palestine Papers, or How Everything You Thought You Knew About the Peace Process Was Wrong
0218 Bloomberg, US Vetoes Palestinian Bid at UN to Halt Israeli Settlements
0207 This Can't Be Happening, The Deepening Mystery of Raymond Davis and Two Slain Pakistani Motorcyclists
0210 NYT, House Republicans Battle Turmoil in Their Ranks
0210 Truthout, Egypt Protests - Watch for the Demands
0211 Truthout, History Suggests No Doomsday Will Occur if Iran Gets the Bomb
0214 FAS, CIA reports no progress in classification review
0214 Away Point, Christian Flag Folding Ceremony Reveals Official Sanction of Church-State Violations in the Military
0216 WP, Bernard Madoff to NY newspaper - Banks "complicit" in fraud
Intelligence, N. 573, 21 February 2011, p. 15
CALLS & COMING EVENTS THROUGH 15 APRIL
20-24 February, Abu Dhabi, UAE, International Defense Exhibition and
28 February, deadline for submissions for chapters for "Nano-Cyberwarfare
and Counterterrorism: Threat, Attack, Resistance, and
Survival Technology Issues", contact Steven John Thompson, Towson
University, Linthicum Hall 218F, Towson MD 21252 USA,
email@example.com or tinyurl.com/nanocyberwar.
3-5 March, London, Institute of Advanced Legal Studies London, Second
Biennial War Crimes Conference, "Justice? – Whose Justice?",
firstname.lastname@example.org or www.perc.plymouth.ac.uk/solon/.
15 March, submissions are due for volumes I and II of "Counterterrorism:
From the Cold War to the War on Terror" to be published by ABC-CLIO in 2011.
Volume I consists of six chapters (sections). Section 1 is devoted largely
to definitional issues and serves as a foundation for further discussion in
subsequent sections on the 21st century terrorist threat. Section 2
addresses the evolution and effectiveness of select nation-state
counterterrorism policy. Sections 3 and 4 address key issues which impact
counter-terrorism strategy and the post-9/11 global counter-terrorism
campaign respectively. Regional counter-terrorism efforts and an agenda for
future research are discussed in sections 5 and 6. Volume 2 provides a
section containing articles on some of the world’s elite counter-terrorism
forces and a chronology of major global counter-terrorism operations. Volume
2 also includes a compilation of national and international treaties, laws,
conventions, agreements, and protocols which have been implemented in an
attempt to counter this ongoing threat to public safety and international
security. Volume 2 concludes with a glossary containing organizational and
individual profiles and a comprehensive bibliography. If you are interested
in contributing, the editors can email you a list of available articles and
a full description of the project. Contact email@example.com.
20 March, deadline for abstract submission for the International Workshop on
Coping with Crises in Complex Socio-Economic Systems on 20-25 June, in
Zurich, Switzerland, at ETH Zurich, see
ifb.ethz.ch/comphys/conferences/ccss-workshop2011/ or contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
1-2 April, Starkville, Mississippi, the History Department at Mississippi State University's Fifth Regional International Security/Internal Safety Conference, email@example.com
13-15 April, Miami, Florida, the 2011 Crime Mapping Research Conference, "Crime, Social Ills, and Place-based Solutions", organized by the National Institute of Justice of the US Department of Justice, ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/events/maps/welcome.htm.
Intelligence, N. 573, 21 February 2011, p. 18
CIA WORKS HARD FOR ITS “BAD PRESS”
It looks like the CIA has made a real effort ... to avoid respecting mandatory government actions and can therefore expect “bad press” for its “hard work” to not do what it’s supposed to do (0214 FAS, CIA reports no progress in classification review): “The Central Intelligence Agency has taken no action to carry out the Fundamental Classification Guidance Review, a mandatory effort to eliminate obsolete or unnecessary classification practices” [is anybody surprised?]. And, of course, that’s not the only recent case (0210 UN, Report - CIA fails to address abuse claims): “US Central Intelligence Agency officials have failed to discipline officers accused of misconduct and do not have in place an effective system for accountability in the war against terrorism, according to an investigation by the Associated Press. CIA officials say the intelligence agency maintains a system for handling misconduct that includes review panels with disciplinary power [but apparently the “panels” don’t do anything].
Other media reports concerning the CIA include:
0204 MSNBC, Intelligence community under fire for Egypt surprise: White House publicly defends agencies; some lawmakers say US should have known more
0214 FAS, Office of the DNI to be downsized: The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) will be "reduced in its size and budget," DNI James R. Clapper Jr. told the House Intelligence Committee last week (pdf). "We, I think, all understand that we're going to be in for some belt-tightening. And given, you know, the funding that we have been given over the last 10 years since 9/11, that's probably appropriate," DNI Clapper said on February 10 [have the CIA and FBI's budgets also been cut or is the DNI just losing its power over them?].
0215 FAS, State secrets said to conceal environmental damage: The Central Intelligence Agency invoked the state secrets privilege in 2004 to cover up a case of environmental contamination at a CIA facility that caused illnesses to an Agency employee and his family, according to the employee, Kevin Shipp. The episode was revealed in the "Washington Post" and the "New York Times" on February 11 after Mr. Shipp decided to go public with his account of the sealed case. The story was elaborated yesterday in the "Washington Post" with the disclosure that the CIA also failed to respond to inquiries from Mr. Shipp's congressman, Rep. Frank Wolf, and that the congressional intelligence committees refused to respond to Mr. Shipp at all.
0216 Tom Dispatch, With an $80 billion budget, how did our intel agencies fail to see the revolution that exploded in Egypt: You don't need an $80-billion-plus budget and a morass of 17 intelligence agencies to look at the world and draw a few intelligent conclusions.
0216 UN/NYT, Iraqi prewar intelligence provider admits lies: The Iraqi defector who provided intelligence on Iraqi weapons sites that the US used as part of its justification for invading Iraq says he provided false information. Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi, code-named in intelligence circles as "Curveball," says lying about Iraq's weapons programs was the only way he saw to bring about the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime.
0217 Iraq Veterans Against the War, IVAW to Justice Department - Investigate INC Ties to Iraqi WMD Intelligence Fabricator "Curveball": On 15 February 2011, the Guardian reported that Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi, code-named "Curveball" by US intelligence officials, admitted to fabricating knowledge of Saddam Hussein's alleged biological weapons program. Despite clear warnings from CIA officials, the Bush administration used Mr. Janabi's information in public statements and reports to Congress that influenced its vote to authorize military force against Iraq.
0217 UN, Classified US report foresaw Mideast uprisings: A secret 18-page report commissioned last year by US President Barack Obama apparently identifies Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen as likely sites for popular uprisings, in the event that political changes were not undertaken by their autocratic rulers. Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev said in an interview that Russia, too, could experience an Egypt-style uprising as a result of what he called its shameful political system.
IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO RECEIVE FUTURE FREE SUMMARY COPIES OF "INTELLIGENCE", EMAIL US AT INTELLIGENCE-ADI@WANADOO.FR